WHO WILL WIN SUPER BOWL LVI WITH 81% ACCURACY
THE SUPER BOWL WILL BE WON TOMORROW BY THE TEAM THAT HAS THE MOST....
1. BIG PLAYS (+20 yards) - wins 81% of all games.
OTHER ANALYTICS THAT WILL DETERMINE WHO HOLDS UP THE LOMBARDI TROPHY TOMORROW:
2. TURNOVERS - the team that creates the most turnovers wins 78% of the time.
3. SACKS - the team that creates the most sacks wins 77% of the time.
4. TACKLES for LOSS - the team with the most TFL's wins at a 69% clip.
What should this data mean to coaches?
It should mean a ton.
IF YOU ARE AN OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR, your offense must create CHUNK PLAYS, minimize TURNOVERS, SACKS and TACKLES FOR LOSS! (FAST 'N WIDE does all of this - fastnwide.com)
We should be using this information to help us make decisions both in program philosophy and in-game.
Numbers don't lie; this data has been collected from every college and professional game since 1950.
#1 - BIG PLAYS. If the team with the most plays of +20 yards has an 81% greater chance of winning, should you think about offense differently? Is there a consistent way to 'hit them big' with shots in your offense? If not, then find a way to create 'chunk' plays.
#2 - TURNOVERS. Are you working turnover stations every day? We do (youTube New England Patriots turnover drills) and we are constantly yelling, "fist to chin" when we are bringing the ball back to the quarterback in drills.
#3 - SACKS. "No quarterback performs better when he is facing a blitz, from Tom Brady on down", Coach Kelley told me as we were talking at a break in the clinic. Pressure the opponent's quarterback. Sacks are termed 'disasters' for us (as well as turnovers). This is from a previous blog, but I don't understand why coaches often release the running back. I rarely (if ever) see a true hot throw to a back. At North Forney, we seven-man pass protect much of the time. We don't give up many sacks.
#4 - TACKLES FOR LOSS. The statistics show when any drive begins with a play of fewer than four yards, the chances of scoring a touchdown decrease by 40%...this means 'P-10' is a HUGE play! This relates to sacks; defenses should bring pressure.
ANALYTICS matter. Not only to know them but to use them in how we coach.
*This blog is a reprint from 2021 after I attended a clinic hosted by Kevin Kelley, the guy who always onsides kicks and never punts. Coach Kelley is known throughout the nation as 'the analytics guy' who uses data to coach in a very aggressive way. It has worked for him and Pulaski Academy. They have won nine state championships since 2003, including 2019, and again this year in 2020.
The clinic was terrific, but for me, the best part was the first hour when he went through the analytics of what determines victory.
**Coach Kelley will be speaking to the ECMM on March 6 and we will do DEEEEEEP on analytics!